Media budgets for UK advertisers are expected to increase by more than 7% in the first quarter of 2026, despite concerns over supply chain disruption and low consumer confidence.
This is a sign that advertisers are not taking action to attract or discontinue media investment amid the prospect of slow economic growth, rising tariffs on goods exported to the United States, or rising energy prices triggered by the recent war between the United States and Iran.
“The trend, I think, is more positive than you might expect based on the news,” said Chris Woodward, executive director at Brandtech Oliver stores.
According to Bellwether’s quarterly survey published by the Institute for Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), UK brands are expected to increase their media spend by 7.3% compared to the current quarter (Q1 starts in April, as per UK convention).
Advertisers in the UK spent more than £40 billion ($54 billion) last year, according to IAB UK analysis.
Based on a survey of more than 300 marketers in the UK, this quarter’s report is the first indication that ad spend may remain strong amid the geopolitical pressures advertisers face – for example the recent war between the US and Iran, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The survey was conducted between March 2-24.
“Who knows what the future will bring, but ‘investing through volatility’ will always be a reality,” said Kimberley Upton, head of effectiveness at integrated agency Zeal. “Today’s smartest players are balancing branding and activation to protect market share while pricing power recovers.”
More than a quarter (28.6%) of respondents said they were more optimistic about their business’s financial prospects than they were three months ago, 0.6% higher than those who felt negative about their company’s prospects. An earlier survey found that only 17.2% were optimistic, indicating a shift in expectations in recent months.
These findings are at odds with Britain’s bleak economic outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week warned that Britain is highly vulnerable to the impact of a global recession, if the current impasse continues. The IMF revised down its UK economic growth expectations from 1.3% to 0.8%, while S&P Global Market Intelligence cut its GDP forecast by 0.3% to 0.5% for 2026 in March.
Paul Bainsfair, director general of the IPA, said the findings “signal a bullish start for marketing investment in the UK” and show that marketers have learned to sustain brand spend through economic shocks based on the experience of recent years.
“The evidence is noted, even in more difficult conditions, [that] reducing advertising risks long-term damage. “It is therefore good news that UK companies are remaining bold and investing to stay at the forefront of consumers’ minds, strengthen their brands and drive future growth,” he said in a statement.
Nidhi Shah, global business analyst at WPP Media, said pressure on consumer spending and business costs could drive up marketing spending.
“We anticipate that as consumer spending becomes more limited and businesses prioritize protecting sales and market share, there will be an increased focus on marketing that clearly demonstrates brand value and builds authentic trust with audiences,” he said in an email.
While the survey showed an overall increase in budgets, channels considered safer choices by marketers accounted for the lion’s share of this. Spending on online video increased 5.7%, while investment in direct marketing increased 3.6%; channels on the fringes of the media plan, such as audio and out-of-home, saw declines of 3.4% and 11.3%, respectively.
Publicis Groupe CFO Loris Nold described a similar pattern during the company’s Q1 earnings call with analysts this week. “Clients prioritize solutions that drive measurable results and efficiencies,” he said.
Early signs from the parent company appear to support the IPA’s findings. The UK market accounted for 9% of Publicis’ net revenue of $4 billion in Q1, and Groupe recorded organic growth of 6.2% in its latest earnings.
Meanwhile, Havas sees European organic growth rising 1.1% over the same period in 2025 (the company did not break out specific figures for the UK).
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