Media Buying Summary: Q4 was a bit shaky, and buyers wonder how it will impact shopping in 2026

That reality has led to reports that some publishers and sellers are offering incentives to get more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the volatility impacting the market today could easily usher in a weaker first quarter of 2026 that lacks the momentum needed to make this a winning year for brands, publishers, and agencies.

“It’s not a soft market – I just had two significant budgets handed to me for the remainder of the fourth quarter,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than it was at first.”

The buyer, who spoke to Digiday on condition of anonymity, said that one downside is that some higher-spending advertisers commit a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments due to favorable pricing, leaving fewer dollars to spend spread out. This has left some TV players attached to TV networks scrambling to fill their coffers, as they expect more cash to work in Q4.

Some strengths or weaknesses in the market — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media, and audio — depend on the client’s position in the purchasing funnel. It seems these days, top of the funnel brand marketing is all the rage as advertisers make sure their brands are top of mind for the next six weeks.

“Across the ad spend we manage across digital, traditional and retail media networks, we saw year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top of the funnel investment across YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. The numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting subsequent additional funding to brand awareness versus conversion tactics.”

David Dweck, who was recently promoted from general manager to president of digital agency Go Fish, said the market is weaker than what he’s seen since the pandemic first shook up market activity.

“We expect the holiday season to be quieter than the last three to five years,” Dweck said, citing a decline in consumer spending. “We saw a slightly higher spike [in client spend] in mid-October, but decreased to 10% in the last two weeks.”

Categories said to be reducing spend include some CPG and financial services, while healthcare and pharmaceutical clients are actually increasing spend, especially in CTV and retail media. “We’re actually seeing a resurgence in some categories,” said Jason Lim, head of media at Majlis. “We’re actually seeing a pretty healthy area in the retail sector. Some of the hot spots that we previously saw a little bit of weakness were healthcare or anything health-oriented, but now we’re seeing a little bit of a resurgence there.”

Yet another sign pointing to a weaker Q4 is the number of incentives given to buyers by sellers who are not in the strongest position. Specifically for the second-tier CTV and digital audio space, Alicia Weaver, vice president of media activation at Mediassociates, said she is seeing an increase in incentives. “In the last two weeks, vendors have become more aggressive in their outreach,” he said, citing “incentives to purchase anything additional [inventory]usually in the form of added value.” He added that two sellers are even offering beta testing opportunities, allowing advertisers to become early adopters — but only if the beta tests hit the mark. “That is something that [sellers] leveraging it, I think to make the agency and the client feel special,” Weaver said.

It was a time that made Weaver think something was wrong. “Today, we don’t typically look at opportunities like, ‘buy us at this price, and you’ll get this percentage of value add, or access this beta opportunity,’” Weaver added. “It looks like sales goals might not be achieved — people are pulling out all the stops in the last few weeks to try to make something happen.”

Could the parent company’s greater use of mainstream media be a factor in the increase in available inventory? Scott Shamberg, president/CEO of media agency Mile Marker, thinks it’s possible.

“There is no doubt that major media positions, towards the end of the year, have an influence on market movements,” Shamberg said. The parent company “has commitments that pay off at the end of the calendar year. So if I’m holding with Meta or Google, I have some metrics that I have to meet within a certain time period, and most of them have to be met by the end of the year. Especially because Q4 tends to throw budgets. Maybe this year the budget numbers aren’t as big, which means they’re holding more inventory than they might have in the past.”

So how will all this impact 2026? History shows that slowing momentum from the fourth quarter into the new calendar year (and for many, the fiscal year) could mean starting 2026 with a groan, rather than a bang. Clients and agencies are getting used to volatility and uncertainty, and media agencies are starting to take this into account in planning.

“Our clients are probably in line with what should be happening in the market, which is a slight 2% to 4% increase in media spend,” Shamberg said. “We’re discussing how much media inflation is going to be next year, and how they’re planning for that. The theme of uncertainty will continue, but people will probably be more optimistic going into 2026 in terms of their spending than they were in ’25.”

However, with a series of key events coming up in 2026 – the Winter Olympics, the Super Bowl, the World Cup in the US and the midterm elections, which will suck up much of the stock at lower prices – a lot of money has been earmarked to flow into big media coffers.

First, the market needs to see where Q4 ends to know how 2026 will start. These days, no one is hitting the panic button. But the anxiety behind it is clear.

Color by number

We all know that AI is touching and even taking over every corner of the brand marketing ecosystem. How many questions? MiQ conducted a global study of more than 3,000 marketers from brands and agencies on the readiness and adoption of AI in advertising. It found that globally, AI adoption is increasing faster than marketers’ ability to use it well. Although 72% of respondents plan to expand their use of AI in the next 12 months, only 45% feel confident to implement it effectively, creating a global confidence gap of “27 points”. Some other highlights:

• 40% of marketers say their organizations don’t fully understand how to use AIand 44% cited poor measurement frameworks as a barrier. Nearly half still rely on proxy measures such as clicks and web traffic, making it difficult to capture the true business value of AI.
• Confirming that people with British accents may be smarter than the rest of us, 53% of marketers in the UK say they are very confident in their knowledge of AIone of the highest rates globally, particularly in terms of the use of AI to develop insight and intelligence (51%).

Takeoff & landing

• WPP was reportedly hit with another lawsuit last week, when longtime GroupM executive Richard Foster alleged he was fired after internally calling for an “improper bribery operation.”
• British holding company MSQ launched MSQ DX, a new global digital experience agency that brings together agencies 26DX, MMT And Editnumbering 500 staff in the UK, Germany, Spain and the United States. MMT Rebecca Villain appointed as new group CEO.
• Independent marketing services agency Markation purchased by a talent solutions company 24 Seven with support by Morgan Stanley Capital Partners.
• B2B Agency Imaginarium acquired select assets of the Arizona-based agency Zion & Ziona data and technology company, launched Unbundled ABM Growth Systemnew managed service for account-based marketing (ABM).
• Goodway Group media, creative and data tasks for retailers SiteOne.
• Personnel movement: WPP named Elav Horwitz its first chief Innovation Officer, a new role responsible for applied AI and technology-based solutions for clients… Nielsen tapped Peter Naylor to become … Dentsu’s first chief client officer Marking employed Matt Kitcherside to become CEO, EMEA, holding a similar position at Hogarth. His movements were stymied Kevan thorn from CEO, EMEA to chairman.

Direct quote

“Back then I could quit a job and have five interviews the next day. Now, I can’t get an interview… It’s a tough market.”

— An unknown advertising technology executive who lost his job earlier this year, as told to Sam Bradley.

Speed ​​reading